Hit enter to search or ESC to close
KāingaRohe | DistrictOur KāpitiPopulation and demographicsPopulation forecasts

Population forecasts

The population growth forecasts for Kapiti have been recently updated to inform the 2021-41 long-term plan. The forecasts are based on projections provided by BERL Economics. The full BERL report can be accessed here.

These population growth forecasts reflect actual and estimated increased connectivity to Wellington from the Expressway and Transmission Gully, the estimated short term impacts of Covid-19, actual historic population growth rates achieved by the district and future growth anticipated from the implementation of the National Policy Statement on Urban Development (NPS-UD) and the emerging Wellington Regional Growth Framework (WRGF). The Draft WRGF Report can be accessed here.

The population of Kapiti is estimated to grow by approximately 30,000 people to 85,658 by 2050, requiring up to an additional 12,000 dwellings, (assuming an average household size of 2.5 occupants). Year on year population growth (number, percentage and dwellings), by Statistical Area, are shown below.

Projected 2020 to 2050 population by Statistical Area 2

Statistical Area 2

2020

2021

2024

2027

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Change 2021-50

Waikanae Park

2,154

2,255

2,610

3,245

3,858

4,868

5,873

6,578

6,874

4,720

Otaki

3,605

3,691

4,007

4,281

4,584

5,578

6,628

7,865

9,329

5,724

Waikanae West

4,523

4,541

4,746

4,973

5,195

5,841

6,768

7,601

8,247

3,724

Paraparaumu Central

4,133

4,170

4,386

4,627

4,837

5,336

6,003

6,866

7,967

3,834

Paraparaumu East

2,340

2,376

2,546

2,741

2,935

3,380

3,915

4,565

5,354

3,014

Raumati South

3,878

3,879

3,889

4,033

4,202

4,399

4,594

4,745

4,829

951

Waikanae East

2,473

2,492

2,639

2,863

3,069

3,421

3,735

4,187

4,782

2,309

Forest Lakes

686

691

742

835

979

1,160

1,309

1,467

1,568

882

Paraparaumu North

3,686

3,708

3,804

3,893

4,008

4,090

4,123

4,190

4,317

631

Peka Peka

635

657

751

854

960

1,092

1,200

1,316

1,452

817

Otaihanga

831

847

900

951

1,016

1,147

1,219

1,302

1,404

573

Raumati Beach East

2,458

2,463

2,489

2,512

2,560

2,644

2,731

2,812

2,892

434

Waitohu

1,045

1,076

1,182

1,239

1,304

1,360

1,423

1,471

1,542

497

Maungakotukutuku

1,384

1,413

1,506

1,606

1,641

1,652

1,664

1,690

1,740

356

Paraparaumu Beach East

2,762

2,762

2,805

2,848

2,900

2,893

2,887

2,907

2,968

206

Waikanae Beach

3,362

3,366

3,393

3,412

3,452

3,457

3,463

3,499

3,586

224

Raumati Beach West

2,961

2,966

2,998

3,021

3,060

3,071

3,083

3,121

3,204

243

Paraparaumu Beach West

2,443

2,446

2,461

2,471

2,497

2,496

2,496

2,517

2,575

132

Otaki Beach

1,877

1,900

1,939

1,963

1,998

2,021

2,045

2,085

2,156

279

Te Horo

1,471

1,479

1,508

1,541

1,565

1,577

1,590

1,616

1,666

195

Paraparaumu Beach North

4,192

4,192

4,210

4,231

4,252

4,273

4,273

4,273

4,273

81

Paekakariki

1,802

1,808

1,823

1,835

1,859

1,866

1,873

1,897

1,947

145

Otaki Forks

803

809

828

845

868

891

913

942

986

183

Kapiti Island

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Tararua Forest Park

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Kapiti Coast District

55,504

55,987

58,164

60,820

63,599

68,514

73,809

79,513

85,658

30,154

Source: Population and household forecasts 2020 to 2050 developed from BERL’s high forecast and taking historical and future anticipated growth into account.

 

Projected 2020 to 2050 growth in dwellings by Statistical Area 2

Statistical Area 2

2021-23

2024-26

2027-30

2031-35

2036-40

2041-45

2046-50

Change 2021-50

Waikanae Park

133

224

324

404

402

282

118

1,888

Otaki

110

125

157

398

420

495

586

2,290

Waikanae West

48

103

118

258

371

333

258

1,489

Paraparaumu Central

50

118

114

200

267

345

440

1,534

Paraparaumu East

48

86

105

178

214

260

316

1,206

Raumati South

6

38

88

79

78

60

34

382

Waikanae East

35

93

111

141

126

181

238

923

Forest Lakes

15

24

78

72

60

63

40

353

Paraparaumu North

37

34

58

33

13

27

51

252

Peka Peka

33

41

56

53

43

46

54

327

Otaihanga

21

20

33

52

29

33

41

229

Raumati Beach East

10

8

23

34

35

32

32

174

Waitohu

40

29

34

22

25

19

28

199

Maungakotukutuku

39

36

28

4

5

10

20

142

Paraparaumu Beach East

13

15

27

0

0

9

24

88

Waikanae Beach

11

6

19

3

2

14

35

91

Raumati Beach West

12

9

19

4

5

15

33

97

Paraparaumu Beach West

7

2

12

1

1

8

23

55

Otaki Beach

23

8

18

9

10

16

28

112

Te Horo

12

11

15

5

5

10

20

78

Paraparaumu Beach North

4

8

11

8

0

0

0

32

Paekakariki

8

4

12

3

3

10

20

58

Otaki Forks

8

6

12

9

9

12

18

73

Kapiti Island

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Tararua Forest Park

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Kapiti Coast District

722

1,047

1,471

1,971

2,121

2,282

2,458

12,072

Source: Population and household forecasts 2020 to 2050 developed from BERL’s high forecast and taking historical and future anticipated growth into account.

 

Table of annual average increase in population growth

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0.9%

1.0%

1.3%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

 

Please note that annual population growth from year 4 onwards is estimated to be 1.5% per annum using the average of actual historic growth rates. A new forecast provider has recently been engaged to develop forecasts and supporting information on the changes in population, age structure and household types for all Councils across the Wellington Region. This information will be updated onto the website once available.